A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 16, 2024

Ukraine Delivers 3 Times More Drones To Forces In 2024 Than In All 2023

Ukraine's drone forces have prevented a Russian breakthrough despite the mismatch in troop strength and artillery ammunition. JL 

Kateryna Tschchenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Three times more drones have been provided to frontline Ukrainian forces since the beginning of 2024 than during all of 2023. 99% of drones delivered to the front are Ukrainian-made. Drones that are now most widely deployed in combat zones such as FPV drones, attack drones, night vision drones, and multicopter drones, provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a significant advantage and can compensate for "limited resources when it comes to artillery".  Drones will soon be able to travel more than 1,200 kilometres into Russia. Naval surface vessels (or sea drones) currently used to "clean up" the Black Sea will soon be used in the Sea of Azov as well.

As Tesla Lays Off 10 Percent Of Staff, Stock Plummets, Top Execs Quit

An aging lineup of models, increased competition from China and other US manufacturers, cooling demand from consumers due to prices as well as uncertainty about charging station availability - and Musk's penchant for provocative political statements which alienate Tesla's most likely buyers have all contributed to a decline in demand which has affected sales and profits. JL 

Rebecca Elliott and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Tesla plans to slash more than 10% of its global workforce and two of Elon Musk’s top deputies said they were leaving the company, a shake-up that reflects a broader cooling demand for electric vehicles. Tesla stock fell Monday morning. Tesla's shares were down 3% as broader markets rose. Tesla’s stock closed down more than 5% Monday. It has fallen 35% in 2024. Tesla this month reported its first year-over-year decline in quarterly deliveries since 2020, stoking concern about the company’s prospects. Tesla delivered 387,000 vehicles globally in the first three months of 2024, down 8.5% from a year earlier. The company has an aging lineup and faces fierce competition, especially in China.

Why Did US, NATO Planes and Missiles Defend Israel But Not Ukraine?

The first lesson appears to be that the US and NATO do not want volatile, potentially reckless nuclear states with authoritarian rulers like Russia and Israel to be provoked into using their nuclear weapons. The second is that the Republican Party of the US can be bought - or rented - in return for help winning elections. And it helps if the paying country happens to have a dictatorial right-wing government.

But the corollary that most countries around the globe will take from this is that they'd better speed up their acquisition of nukes. And that they need to figure out what the Republicans' price is... JL  

Anne Applebaum reports in The Atlantic:

Why did American and European jets scramble to help Israel, but not Ukraine? One difference is nuclear power. Russia has nuclear weapons. That has made the U.S. and Europe reluctant to enter the skies over Ukraine. Israel also has nuclear weapons, but that means the U.S., Europe, and even some Arab states are eager to make sure Israel is never provoked enough to use them against Iran. The most obvious conclusion to every country including Ukraine and Iran: Nuclear weapons make you much safer. The other obvious conclusion: A part of the Republican Party—one large enough to matter—can be co-opted, lobbied, or purchased outright.

Ukraine Missile Attack Destroys Russian Command Post In Crimea

Ukraine is now able to strike Crimean targets at will. Russia has reportedly withdrawn all major Black Sea Fleet ships from that vicinity. JL 

Kateryna Hodunova reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian forces on April 15 carried out a missile attack on a command post in Russian-occupied Crimea where top Russian offices were deployed. The military base of the Russian 810th Marine Brigade in Sevastopol had been hit. Russian aircraft were recorded taking off during the air raid. Russia had withdrawn nearly all its major ships from ports in occupied Crimea following successful Ukrainian strikes.

Only 3 Percent of Russians Survive Attacks Against Ukraine Bilohorivka Defenses

The Russians chose to attack uphill against entrenched Ukrainian defenders. The ensuing slaughter was as complete as it was predictable. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Some of the most intense clashes on the front are taking place in the Bilohorivka area. The key battle has become White Mountain, a chalk quarry. Ukrainian troops enjoy a tactical advantage because the high ground allows them to establish fire control over the surrounding area. The Russians drove over a road covered in landmines that were pre-placed by Ukrainian drones. This led to the whole column being immobilized, exposing it to FPV drones and artillery, destroying it. The surviving Russian stormtroopers were hunted down and killed in the nearby dugouts.

Apr 15, 2024

Ukraine's 72nd Mechanized Brigade Wipes Out More Russian Armor Near Avdiivka

The decimation of Russian units continues even as Ukrainian units suffer shortages of ammunition and men. JL 

Militarnyi reports:

On April 12, Russians engaged T-62M tanks and light armored vehicles with infantry in an assault. The defenders used FPV kamikaze drones and UAVs with ammunition. At least one T-62M tank was equipped with a KMT-7 tracked mine trawl to overcome minefields. Published footage from the Ukrainian military shows FPV drones taking turns hitting Russian tanks and the other armored vehicles. One T-62M, and a motorcycle were destroyed, as well as 2 MT-LB tracked tractors, which Russians use as armored personnel carriers. Three enemy tanks were damaged.

Ukraine's New Loitering Drones Destroy Russian Air Defenses To Prep F-16s

Ukraine is using new loitering drones to attack Russian air defense capabilities in preparation for the arrival of F-16s which can then begin attacking Russian troop concentrations with Ukraine's own glide bombs. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Ukraine’s drone industry has begun mass-producing a Lancet analogue, the Ram II, which ranges as far as 19 miles with a seven-pound warhead and strikes within three feet of its target. It loiters, scans and strikes with only minimal input from a human operator. Since appearing along the front line in recent weeks, the RAM II has begun wreaking havoc on Russian air defenses. In a single day on April 9, five Russian air defense vehicles were hit by Ram IIs. Ukraine’s RAM IIs will push back Russian air-defenses and make it safer for Ukrainian jets to glide-bomb the Russians